Tips and picks for betting the 89th Academy Awards

The last few years have seen some competitive races for the top Oscar categories including Best Picture, but this year appears to be another year of Titanic or Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, where one movie dominates the others. La La Land is nominated for 17 awards, albeit a couple with multiple nominations in the same category and seems to be a lock to win in at least 6 of them, although only for two of the major categories namely Best Picture and Best Director. Emma Stone looks like the likely winner for Best Actress although some argument can be made for Natalie Portman or Isabelle Huppert.

It's unfortunate that La La Land is such an overwhelming favorite because it just wasn't that spectacular. Like the movie The Artist in 2012, it's one of those movies that will run away with most of the Oscar statues, but will quickly be forgotten. La La Land, although somewhat similar is to Chicago, is definitely not Chicago, which is still watched and talked about 14 years after sweeping the awards in 2003.

That said there are some good value bets out there, so here is a review of all the categories at the 2017 Academy Awards. Note I will not be considering the 3 short categories since I always get them wrong.

Best Picture – La La Land will win. There was some hope that either Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea could be the spoiler, but when Hidden Figures won the SAG for best cast and when La La Land won the Director's Guild Award that all but sealed the deal. La La Land is generally available at 1/10 odds, and while it's hard to justify those odds, I have a colleague who jumps on those "sure things" suggesting he could never find an investment that would pay 10% in a week or two and with most investments today one is lucky to get 5% over a year.

Best Director – Damien Chazelle has won everything including the Director's Guild Award for his direction of La La Land. Betting against him is futile, but betting on him at 1/50 is even worse. Unless he can be included in a parlay bet he is worth passing up.

Best Actress – It appeared for a while that Natalie Portman and Isabelle Huppert would give Emma Stone a run for her money in this category after each won 3 important film festival awards, but that now is unlikely after Stone won all the late awards. She won the AACTA award, the Golden Globe, the BAFTA award and most importantly the SAG award. Last year every actor that won a SAG also won the Oscar and it is the best predictor of Oscar success particularly for the leading role. At 1/6 odds Stone seems a great bet.

Best Actor – This is a 2-horse race between Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and Denzel Washington in Fences. Casey Affleck won most of the smaller awards as well as the Golden Globe and BAFTA award but he did lose the SAG to Washington. And as mentioned the SAG is the best predictor of Oscar success especially for the leading roles. As well Manchester by the Sea which was an early favorite to win best picture has lost all momentum and numerous websites have emerged attacking Affleck's acting in the film. And of course, it can't be overlooked that the Academy will be looking to make up for the lack of black acting awards last year. My hunch is that the SAG will rule again and Washington will take home the trophy at odds as high as 3/2.

Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis has won everything for her performance in Fences. There is zero reason to think that will change now. The odds of 1/50 make her unbettable but it is free money.

Best Supporting Actor – Merhashala Ali has won most of the awards for his performance in Moonlight, but Dev Patel won the AACTA award and BAFTA for his role in Lion. Ali won the more important SAG award but the SAG winner in the supporting categories does tend to lose the Oscar at times. The question is whether the Academy will stick to their plan to award black actors when possible or whether they'll stray in this category and give it to the more personable Patel. Moreover, Moonlight will likely lose in all the other categories it's nominated so this could be a chance to reward the film. Ali is 1/7 while Patel is 6/1. My hunch is that Ali will get the award but at the odds Patel is the play. 6/1 on a real contender is just too hard to pass up.

Best Original Screenplay – Again this is a 2-horse race between Manchester by the Sea at 5/8 odds and La La Land at 6/5. There's no question that Manchester was a better script but when the Best Picture winner is nominated in this category it has won 80% of the time. One notable exception is The Artist which lost to Moonlight in Paris in 2011. Mind you The Artist was based on a silent movie which could have been a reason it lost. My hunch is that La La Land will sweep the Oscars with this category included. And at 6/5 odds the price is certainly right.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Moonlight is the heavy 1/5 favorite, but arguments can be made for each of the other nominees as well. Lion won the BAFTA award although Moonlight wasn't nominated there while Hidden Figures won the SAG award for best cast, the SAG equivalent to best picture. In the past when a film is liked by the actors but has no real chance of winning best picture, the writer is rewarded in the screenplay category. The most notable examples of that were Sling Blade (when everyone was pushing for Billy Bob Thornton to get an Oscar), Sideways and The Social Network. I'm going to look for the Academy to do something similar here. While those in the Academy who are not SAG members will vote mostly for Moonlight and some for the other films, I expect SAG members to unite and support their choice for best cast, thereby giving Hidden Figures the award in this category. With odds as high as 10/1 Hidden Figures is too hard to pass up.

Best Film Editing – Look for La La Land to win this category easily at 1/10 odds.
Best Production Design - Again, La La Land is a cinch in this category at 1/20 odds.
Best Score – La La Land will continue to rack up the statues with a win at 1/10 here.
Best Cinematography – La La Land is all about cinematography. Some argument can be given to Lion but La La Land should win this handily at 1/7 odds.

Best Original Song – For this category I usually listen to the songs and determine what I think should win. More times than not I'm right and have won on some good priced winners like It's Hard Out There for a Pimp, Skyfall, We Belong Together and Writing's on the Wall, last year. But at other times I was wrong when the Academy chose an undeserving song like Let It Go over Happy and the most undeserving winner of all time, in 1979, when It Goes Like it Goes beat Rainbow Connection - albeit that was when I was still a teenager and long before I bet on the Oscars! City of Stars is the overwhelming favorite at 1/6 odds, but I just don't see/hear it. The song is dull and Ryan Gosling can't sing his way out of a paper bag. The other La La Land song Audition is better but doesn't deserve to win either and Sting's song The Empty Chair is terrible. That leaves Justin Timberlake's upbeat rendition of Can't Stop the Feeling and Alessia Cara's rendition of How Far I'll Go. I can see either of those winning but I always prefer more upbeat songs, so my money is on Can't Stop the Feeling at juicy odds of 8/1.

Best Visual Effects – There's certainly nothing to wow anyone this year like Lord of the Rings, so I'll go with the consensus and reward Jungle Book at 1/5 odds.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Star Wars won in 2009 for Joel Harlow so I look for a new winner this year. This category is generally voted on only by those in the industry and from what I've been told, Love Larson is loved by his peers. He actually won best makeup artist for this film at other awards so I'll take the longest shot A Man Called Ove at 6/1.

Best Costume – This is between La La Land at 2/3 odds and Jackie are 6/5. Everyone has raved about how accurate a depiction of Jackie Kennedy Onassis Natalie Portman gave and much of that was due to the costumes. La La Land should lose somewhere and I predict this will be one of the categories. 6/5 seems like a steal.

Best Sound Mixing – Again this is a category usually only voted on by sound people. It seems like almost everyone in that industry believes La La Land is a lock at 1/8 odds so who am I to disagree?

Best Sound Editing – Despite being a massive favorite for mixing La La Land is an 11/4 underdog here to Hacksaw Ridge which is the 4/7 favorite and just ahead of Arrival at 3/1. Strictly based on the odds I'll look for those who vote on this category to give best sound to the same film and consequently to give La La Land the Oscar in both categories as it piles up golden statues.

Best Documentary Feature – OJ: Made in America is the most well known documentary and at 1/8 odds seems like the film to beat, but 13th, a documentary about the 13th amendment, which abolished slavery, has won more critics awards as well as the BAFTA Award (albeit OJ wasn't nominated in that one). With race a big topic again in this years Oscars, particularly in light of Trump's presidential win I look for 13th to pull off the upset at 9/2 odds.

Best Foreign Language Film – This is a category which often produces major upsets since a lot of American Academy members don't vote, rather leaving it to foreign Academy members who are more well versed in the language of the film. The exception to this rule is if there is a political reason to vote for a film in which case American Academy members get on board. The films nominated this year are Toni Erdmann, a German comedy drama which was well received in Europe; The Salesman, an Iranian drama; A Man Called Ove, a Swedish comedy-drama; Land of Mine, a Danish Drama; and Tanna, an Australian Drama but in Nauvhal and Nafe (Tanna) languages. The last two have no shot. A Man Called Ove could pull off an 8/1 upset, especially as it is nominated in another category (best makeup and hairstyling), but it was not as well acclaimed as the two favorites and it was released over a year ago which will hurt its chances.

Toni Erdmann is the 5/7 favorite while The Salesman is the 11/10 second choice, but there is one good reason to favor The Salesman, namely politics. Ashgar Farhadi has been in the news of late because Donald Trump's travel ban could mean he is unable to attend if the ban is in effect. Given that the majority of Academy voters can't stand Donald Trump and given that voting for The Salesman would be considered a slap in the face of the Trump Administration I expect far more American Academy members to vote in this category this year and vote for Farhadi. Grab the 11/10 while you can because by Oscar day it will be favored.

Best Animated Feature – Zootopia at one time was considered a contender for Best Picture. It grossed over $300 million, was critically acclaimed and seemed well on its way to giving Disney another Oscar. The problem is that it was released so long ago though that Kubo and the Two Strings has gained a lot of attention. This film was also well received and won the BAFTA award. The cast of voice actors for Kubo is incredible including Charlize Theron, Ralph Fiennes and Matthew McConoughey but in the end Zootopia is just a better film. The favorite in this category has won every year and I just can't Zootopia losing. It is the play despite 1/5 odds.

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