2016 Super Bowl Futures Betting Guide



A look at the odds for the 2016 Super Bowl champion with analysis on not just who to wager on, but when to bet.

We've barely forgiven Coach Pete Carroll for a memorable Super Bowl play and our outlets in Las Vegas and some top online sportsbooks have already called an early line for next year's trophy. Is it time to take advantage of possible oversight in bookmaker judgment or better wait till perhaps next November to make the decision? Overall, I say excercising patience is the proven path but in the case of a few NFL teams we might want to consider plunking down a few dollars for the 2016 Super Bowl Champion ASAP.

For example, the Super Bowl future betting odds listed at well-known sportsbooks like Bovada.lv are what oddsmakers choose to offer the market. They are not similar to a "pari-mutuel" pool as in horse racing, where a 15-30% vigorish is taken and odds set per customer action. Adding up player investment they are quite favorable to the house, knowing the majority of NFL teams have no legitimate chance but do take loyal home team support and long-shot chance action.

Teaming Up
Therfore, I cannot fathom why anyone would waste their money wagering the Tennesse Titans at 150-1 to win the Super Bowl or Jacksonville Jaguars at only 200-1. An actuary might put their chances closer to 50,000-1 or the odds of Ray Rice winning the next NFL Man of the Year trophy. But if someone is foolish enough to buy it, sportsbooks will post it.

Super Bowl future bettingConversely, the favorites may not offer the best "value" on the menu either. Currently the Seattle Seahawks are listed at 11/2 odds but many questions must be answered to put their chances of winning above a dozen legitimate contenders. Will Marshawn Lynch be equally motivated next season or will his off-field antics continue to be a distraction? Have the Seahawks indeed found their necessary receiver tandem? Will the Super Bowl finish haunt them come playoff time next season with naysayers and the media breathing down their back?

The New England Patriots are a tempting 6/1 but we've learned the odds are against any team repeating in the Super Bowl. Perhaps that was part of a curse against the Seahawks at the goal line this season?

If you're speculating for good value and want to take a risk now, the oddsmakers seem to have done their homework. The "what have you done for me lately" factor is very evident with the Denver Broncos a surprising 14-1 selection while Peyton Manning makes his decision to stay on board or retire. The Broncos playoff flop is also echoed in the Philadelphia Eagles future odds, which have them as a semi-longshot at 22-1. We recall the Birds not even making the playoffs last season while many were discussing a #1 NFC seeding on December 1st. Questions remain if injured QB Nick Foles will be their healthy #1 starter again and can they compete with the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

Speaking of the Packers, they are a current second betting choice in the NFC at 7/1 and overall third choice in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. They may not remain there and likely could rise in odds if last season's betting pattern repeats again this season.

Timing Up
America's Team, of course that would be the Dallas Cowboys jumped out to an early 6-1 season and captured the public's wagering hearts by dropping from a 30-1 outsider to as little as 3/1 second choice for the Super Bowl in mid-October. The Cowboys are now 12/1 for the 2016 prize and identical circumstances could happen again with a strong start and loyal Cowboy bettors onboard. The major reason why it's usually best to WAIT until at least near mid-season to investing in Super Bowl future wagering.

Let's remember football fans, it was none other than the Seattle Seahawks who lost to the St. Louis Rams 28-26 on October 19th to give them a hugely disappointing 3-3 record and many articles claiming they were on a serious decline. Their Super Bowl Future Odds climbed to as high as 10-1 in Vegas and some notable offshore sportsbook outlets.

Only an unforgettable, poorly-timed slant pass with 30 Super Bowl seconds to go prevented some from cashing one of the best foresighted bets ever. Ouch . . . hope you weren't one of the unfortunate victims of that historical judgement. But maybe you can brag you're a loyal Tom Brady supporter. The Pats chances were deflated by many in Kansas City when the Chiefs destroyed the Pats 41-14 on September 29th. Their odds subsequently zoomed from 3/1 to 6/1 the following week.

So if you're going to play Super Bowl Futures, like the stock market, the big winner is often not just who to invest on but also WHEN.


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