The time of year is upon us to assess the Over and Under Wagers avaliable on NFL team win totals. Last year I put out 5 of these and went 3-2 and my top Play in those was Denver over 5 wins for 2 units, who had a nice run into the playoffs with Tebow mania so we had some decent profit overall. This year I look to sweep the board with selections and a breif description as to why I like the position I am taking. Injuries will affect how many teams end up, but these teams I have selected have depth and good coaching which is a huge plus when the injury bug bites.
Off back to back 60% + ATS seasons in the NFL, I put my 21 years of expereince to the test again in 2012, and now that the preseason kicks off next week, and NFL camps have had a fair amount of information posted out in the media, and looking over rookie and free agent information, these are my top 4 Futures on Win Totals in the NFL. These are moneyline wagers worth a 1 Unit Play with the exception of my top play.
Kansas City OVER 8 Wins -115 TOP PLAY 2 Units
Really like Kansas City in their division and rest assured you will want to look at playing OVER with KC in games where the total is less than 40 this year. KC is LOADED on offense. Not only is Jamal Charles back but they also have Petyon Hillis in camp and some solid backups and playmakers as well. QB Cassell is back at 100%, has 2 solid Tight Ends, a good unit of WR's, and the defense is what kept KC in games last year and they return healthy. KC will be sneaky good this year and I say a 10 win team in this division. They open at Arrowhead with Atlanta but get some tough games at home and only 2 road trips that loom large, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. KC will cover some spreads as a dog this year, mark my words, and they could be very explosive on offense with a well balanced attack. They are better than the Chargers in the AFC West and Peyton Manning will have his hands full in Denver, and Oakland, well, they are Oakland! Kansas City had 7 wins last year, no QB and fired their coach in mid season.
St Louis OVER 6 Wins -125
Have no illusions, St Louis was a trainwreck in 2011, the injury bug and a lame duck coach was a large part of that equation. With a healthy roster and the addition of Jeff Fisher as head coach, look for the Rams to be a spoiler in 2012 in a weak division and a decent schedule as well favors them. A Solid QB, a solid running game, some additions at WR, namely Steve Smith from the Giants, and Fisdher will also have the defense playing much better leads me to think the Rams will get to .500 ball this year. This is a 7-8 win team here and Jeff Fisher is worth 3 games himself, as he is one the best motivators at head coach in the NFL with a proven past, and St Louis will play hard in every game for him.
Houston OVER 10 Wins -130
This team many predict could go all the way this year, and while I am not ready to say that, I am ready to say this was a playoff team last year that won a playoff game without their star QB and a team that is very tough at home, and with a healthy QB and Foster 100% at RB, and a great defense, this team will no doubt be a major contender. The schedule sets up like a dream with about 80% of their tough games at home including Green Bay and Baltimore, and they play in a very weak division which is a huge factor in exceeding 10 wins for any team. This team is also very well coached. Houston is 12-13 win team and a Super Bowl contender.
NY Jets UNDER 8.5 Wins +120
Forget the Tim Tebow distraction, this is Mark Sanchez's team, and they live or die with him at the helm, and I say they die again this year. If pressed into duty as a starter, we all know Tebow cannot stretch the field vertically. The running game is weak at best, chemistry at QB will be an issue trying to implement Tebow in for 10-15 snaps a game with a wildcat and sprint out run type scheme, and they are very thin at WR too. Rex Ryan does garner plenty of press and make bold claims, but this is a middle of the road team in a tough division where both Miami and Buffalo who are better than you think, can beat them, especially when the Jets are on the road, and the Pats should destroy them both games. Overrated to say the least. This is a 7-9 type team at best. No balance or big play talent on offense, and no doubt some drama along the way too.